Computerworld's Howard Wen provides 6 reasons why Flash isn't going away, and notes that "Heralding HTML 5 as the new Web media king is premature".
Computerworld: 6 Reasons Why Flash Isn't Going Away
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I recommend reading youtube developers opinion about this: you can check it here.. http://apiblog.youtube.com/2010/06/flash-and-html5-tag.html It's very interesting.